New tool forecasts wildlife heat threats

June 10, 2026

A team of international researchers led by Josep M. Serra-Diaz from the Botanical Institute of Barcelona (IBB, CSIC-MCNB) has introduced the world’s first global forecasting system capable of predicting when and where vertebrate species will face unprecedented heat exposure up to nine months ahead of time.

Published in Nature Climate Change, the study demonstrates how advanced climate forecasting technology can be adapted to identify ecological threats before they occur. The breakthrough offers conservationists, governments, and local communities valuable time to prepare for the growing impact of extreme heat events on wildlife populations.

New tool forecasts dangerous heat exposure for wildlife

The research combines NASA’s GEOS-S2S subseasonal-to-seasonal climate prediction model with historical temperature data covering the habitats of more than 30,000 vertebrate species, including mammals, birds, reptiles, and amphibians.

Using this approach, scientists identified periods between May 2024 and February 2025 when over 3,500 species were projected to experience temperatures higher than any previously recorded within their geographic ranges. Alarmingly, more than 1,250 of these species are already classified as vulnerable, endangered, or critically endangered, highlighting the growing overlap between climate change impacts and biodiversity loss.

According to Serra-Diaz, traditional conservation strategies often struggle to keep pace with rapidly intensifying climate extremes.

“Heat waves are becoming more frequent and severe, leaving little time for reactive conservation measures. This forecasting system provides several months of advance notice, enabling organizations and communities to prepare before ecological emergencies occur,” he explained.

Climate hotspots identified across multiple continents

The forecasts revealed several regions where wildlife faces especially high risks from extreme temperatures.

Mexico emerged as one of the most vulnerable areas, particularly the Yucatán Peninsula and Tabasco, where severe heat events coincided with reported deaths of howler monkeys due to heat stress.

Other major hotspots included the Congo Basin and broader Sub-Saharan Africa, as well as parts of the Himalayan region. In these areas, temperatures during 2024 approached or exceeded physiological thresholds for many species.

The model’s predictions also aligned with reports from India, Pakistan, and Western Australia, where extreme heat contributed to mortality among birds, bats, and other wildlife species during the forecasted periods.

Early warnings create opportunities for conservation action

Beyond identifying at-risk regions, the new system estimates both the duration of thermal stress and the lead time available before peak exposure occurs.

In many locations, alerts could be issued three to five months before dangerous conditions develop. This advance notice gives conservation authorities an opportunity to implement protective measures, including enhanced wildlife monitoring, emergency water supplies, artificial shade installations, habitat management, and, where necessary, species relocation programs.

The framework also helps prioritize conservation efforts by identifying regions where monitoring and intervention are most urgently needed, allowing limited resources to be directed where they can have the greatest impact.

Shifting conservation from reactive to proactive

Researchers believe predictive tools like this will become increasingly important as climate-driven extreme weather events continue to intensify.

Historically, conservation efforts have often focused on responding to environmental crises after damage has already occurred. The ability to forecast extreme heat risks months in advance could fundamentally change that approach by enabling preventative action.

Serra-Diaz emphasized that this technology represents a new generation of ecological forecasting systems designed to support rapid decision-making and emergency response. Rather than focusing solely on long-term climate projections, these tools provide practical, near-term information that can help protect wildlife and biodiversity before extreme events unfold.

As global temperatures continue to rise, proactive forecasting systems may become a critical component of future conservation strategies aimed at safeguarding vulnerable species from the growing threat of extreme heat.