UN warns of record global heat by 2030

May 28, 2026

Global warming is expected to intensify over the next five years, with scientists warning that average worldwide temperatures could climb to nearly 1.9°C above pre-industrial levels before 2030.

According to the latest climate outlook released by the United Nations’ World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the UK Met Office, annual global temperatures between 2026 and 2030 are forecast to range from 1.3°C to 1.9°C higher than averages recorded during 1850–1900.

The report highlights an 86% probability that at least one year before 2030 will become the hottest year ever recorded. Researchers also estimate a 91% chance that one of the next five years will exceed the critical 1.5°C global warming threshold established under the Paris Climate Agreement.

Scientists further revealed there is a 75% likelihood that the average global temperature across the 2026–2030 period will remain above 1.5°C compared to historical benchmarks. Although climate experts say surpassing 2°C before 2030 is extremely unlikely, climate models indicate there is still a small possibility of it occurring.

Arctic warming and extreme weather risks increase

The Arctic region is projected to experience some of the most dramatic temperature increases on Earth. Experts predict Arctic winters over the next five years could average 2.8°C above the 1991–2020 norm — warming more than three times faster than the global average.

Northern Europe may also face significantly wetter winters, raising concerns over severe flooding and other climate-related disasters. Scientists warn that intensified rainfall and changing weather patterns are becoming major threats across the region.

Paris climate agreement targets under pressure

The 2015 Paris Agreement committed countries worldwide to limiting global warming to well below 2°C while aiming to keep temperature rises below 1.5°C. These targets were designed to reduce the devastating effects of climate change, including rising sea levels, droughts, heatwaves, storms, and widespread flooding.

In 2024, global temperatures temporarily crossed the 1.5°C threshold for the first time, driven by the combined effects of human-caused greenhouse gas emissions and the El Niño climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean.

However, researchers emphasize that a single year above 1.5°C does not mean the Paris target has been permanently breached, since long-term climate trends are measured over decades rather than individual years.

Current estimates suggest the planet has already warmed by approximately 1.4°C since the industrial era, mainly due to the large-scale burning of fossil fuels.

El Niño could push temperatures even higher

The report also points to a likely return of El Niño conditions by late 2026, which could contribute to additional global heat in the following years.

Leon Hermanson, lead author of the climate update, explained that the expected El Niño event may significantly increase the chances of 2027 setting a new global temperature record.

The WMO’s annual climate update arrives shortly after the United Kingdom experienced a record-breaking May heatwave, with climate experts linking the unusually high temperatures to ongoing human-driven climate change.

Governments urged to accelerate climate action

Reacting to the findings, climate minister Katie White warned that climate change is no longer a distant threat but a growing reality affecting everyday lives.

She stressed that rising temperatures, sleepless nights during heatwaves, and increased flood risks are becoming more common for families across the world. White also emphasized that stronger investment in clean energy, innovation, and climate solutions is essential to protect future generations while supporting economic growth and energy security.

Scientists continue to urge governments to take immediate action to reduce carbon emissions and slow the pace of global warming before climate impacts become even more severe.